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Wednesday 12/17/08 12/17/08 MID-DAY UPDATE at 12:26 PM EST
Markets are pulling back after yesterday's FOMC led rally, but that's not surprising.
There is no real news to motivate the markets either way at this point and we are right in the middle of expirations.
I am, however seeing fundamental shifts in both sentiment and real progress in the underlying consolidations taking place.
The LIBOR is now at the lowest late in months, accelerating its decline to 1.58% which translates to an easing of credit beginning to show through.
While I am sure there are going to be more hedge fund failures to surface after the Madoff debacle since many of these funds were nothing but feeders to them, the overall impact should be minimal in terms of the broader market. Paulson made nice noises about his belief that there will be no more "Major" financial institution collapses on the horizon and that his job is essentially over once we get through funding the Auto Companies.
Oil is cooperating quite nicely, hovering this morning near the $40 mark, will Gold and other commodities continue to gain strength. The US Dollar is losing value rapidly, but remember, this is a two edged sword and a lower dollar while adding to the long range inflation fears has the effect of making our goods and services cheaper to the rest of the world and is what kept us in the spotlight as the place to buy over the last 6 years. Right now we need to concentrate on regaining market stability. After that it will be a tough balancing act which will require global cooperation to avoid rampant inflation from swinging the pendulum the other way, but that is a year or three down the road.
Henry Ford- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Tuesday 12/16/08 12/16/08-BERNANKE DAY IN THE MIDST OF EXPIRATIONS at 11:34 AM EST
Today will be an FOMC announcement day, always an excuse for increased volatility around announcement time, but today there is little doubt of the outcome. The FED is on schedule to drop interest rates by 50 basis points to just .25% the lowest in history.
The USUAL course of events for expirations weeks is day to day reversals Monday,Tuesday, Wednesday before finally settling into the Friday morning opening. Yesterday we were mildly down, so today should see a reversal up and tomorrow down once again. We compound that with the historical record of FOMC announcements, and their record is a reversal the following day of whatever the closing direction was....SO...tomorrow is a tossup at this point.
These are the weeks, especially when we have a Quad Witching Expirations cycle when I advise folks to turn off CNBC and go beat your carpets or wax your garage floor. Take a break and come back next Monday after traders have a chance to square their positions as best they can and take their setups for a run into the end of the year.
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