Well...It's official. We are in a bear market...at least by the numbers on the DOW which is what the world looks to as a benchmark.

The SP500 and NDX aren't quite there, but the focus has now shifted away from the cause (oil prices)to the Victim..(the markets).

Just as we need confirmation on breakouts, we also need confirmations on breakdowns.

We should have had all the ammunition the bears needed this morning with a negative ISM report, higher than expected unemployment claims and a rise in unemployment, but the market actually rallied...even in the face of rising oil (again).

Don't read too much into it. Today is a half-day holiday and most traders didn't even bother showing up for work this morning. New positions will have to wait for next week when they get the holiday barbecue sauce off of their new shoes.

The risk has certainly increased, but it has increased on the bears side as well. Time will sort this out. Don't try to force it.