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Thanks for such a great website and advisory service. If only I had listened to your advice in a mor ... Read More...
Stock Market Update 3/3/08 by Henry Ford

Monday 03/03/08
Stock Market Update at 02:21 PM EST

Markets have just been marking time here with the DOW down about 80 points at one time and bouncing off of the close of last night. The ISM number actually came in a little better than expected

This probably won't resolve itself until the last hour or so on a day when some of the Fed Governors are going to vie for some more of their "15 minutes in the sun" at a conference at the end of the day.

Still considered trendless here, will keep our eyes on the SP500 as the major market driver to tell us if we are going to go back for a full retest of the lows again.

One of the best ways to see real support and resistance is through the use of Point and Figure Charts. The can identify areas of congestion which reflect these areas over many years in a very compact chart.

Here is the SP500 chart as it is today:



The next support level here is 1320, then 1270. I have also indicated a line drawn at 1300 because these even $100 increments become areas of focus for traders, both bullish and bearish. They expect a test of these levels and if bullish anticipate a bounce and if bearish hope for a continuation through that level to break 1290. If you look at candlestick charts you can add a couple more at 1325 and 1312, but this is the type of a thing that can take on a life of its own and is one of the reasons intermediate traders get so confused. We haven't even talked about Fibonaccis or Elliot Wave enthusiasts (NEVER put two in a room alone or you are liable to have fistfights over different interpretations of wave counts).

While best for judging support and resistance, P&F charts cannot tell you when psychologically significant moving average lines have been broken or approached. The 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages have more eyeballs and computer programs watching for crossovers than any other technical indicators and thus become self-fullfilling as opposed to having any real meaning from a technical standpoint.

In the end Occam's Razor ends up being the best arbitrar. Keep it simple..the fewer indicators you use the better. I tend to ignore all except trend lines and 4 simple trading patterns I teach, the best of which is the measured move.

You can track our progress at http://www.pitbullinvestor.com/tradefinder. While still in beta, the signals are real. Working on individual charting links over the next few days and I will be changing the sorting today to reflect latest trades first which seems to be the consensus. The rest of the week will be spent getting the Bearish Measured Moves published on line in the same format...

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