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Thursday 11/01/07
BLIND MONKEYS IN THE PITS and 12 REASONS TO LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITY at 02:19 PM EST
Once again we see the lesson that we have learned so well about FOMC market meeting weeks. High volatility reins surpreme and the "Big Boyz" are having their last hurrah before starting in on the feeding frenzy that will carry us through the end of the year and beyound.
1. Yesterday saw the highest breadth in trading that we have seen in 4 months with the NASDAq kids making new yearly highs, gaining ground at more than double the rate of the SP500 for the first time in 7 years. 2. Income and spending reports this morning showed a rise once again. 3. Oil dropped after topping early in the session 4. Jobless claims are dropping at a surprisingly good pace. 5. Planned, previously announced job layoffs have been revised DOWNWARD by 12.3% 6. Big Investment banks like GS and EV and more are making very favorable moves despite doom and gloom in the banking sector overall (will be doing a special report on this in the near future). 7. Volume and price trends remain solidly in the bullish camp. 8. All of the hard commodities like Copper, Gold etc all look poised to continue their growth. 9. PE ratios are actually dropping. 10. Companies are being hammered for re-investing instead of handing out divend distributions, but nothing could be more bullish. AAPL, CSCO and INTL all had intraday losses because they postulated they were increasing their China investments by double...(That can only be good for the future, but bad for near term dividends)(Great for tax reduction...but hedge funds are a pretty shortsighted crowd). 11. More and more companies are making acquistions because they are cash rich, but more importantly they are buying back their own stock. This is particularly strong signal that they believe the best market opportunity lies in their own backyard and if they think they have the best stock in their sectors we have to perk up and pay attention. 12.Production has peaked in oil for companies like Tesoro and Exxon and they are going to see profits drop. Oil is inflated anyway with a more normal price of 60ish as the logical bbl price, but this is a speculators market and they are just as likely to get to $100 just because century marks are usually taken out once we reach near proximity. Then I would look for a steep decline.
Ok...that's it for today...Go wash the boat and just ignore what you are seeing in this near term volatility. Nothing has changed in the long term growth arena and we have setups for a powerful year end.
May be I will do a redux with the "12 Days of Christmas" theme next month.
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